Saturday, June 5, 2010

Euro: On its way to wave equality




Wave "C" down is approaching a number of key support levels, subwave "4" of previous bull market @ 1.16 and then in terms of wave equality between wave "A" and wave "C" i.e., 100% projection of wave"A" on wave "C", @ 1.14. and finally the 61.8% of the entire bull market @ 1.12...

In the next chart is the Commitment of Traders report analysis on speculative positioning in CME for EURO-FX futures. The data represents Net speculative longs as % of total Open Interest. In mid-2007 we saw the extreme bullish sentiment reading on that indicator, with over 50% total outstanding positions in CME on net long side. In 2010 we see just the opposite picture, around 40% of net speculators betting on short side...

To sum up, I think there is a strong probability of 1.14-1.16 zone to become a floor for the euro...

2 comments:

  1. Welcome Anindya,

    Good to see you posting your views on EW Forecasting.

    Keep posting.

    Cheers,

    Aurum

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  2. Anindya,

    I agree with your view on Euro finding base in the range of 1.16 - 1.12. Many are betting on EUR parity with USD, but i'm a part of that camp.

    Cheers,

    Aurum

    ReplyDelete